Meet the Field for the 33rd Run for the Roses!

Original article written by Emily White posted 11 years 0 weeks ago

It's finally the day of the prestigious Louisville Derby. There are seventeen entrants and all of them have a shot to win. Sure, there are the stand-outs, but it should be a very evenly-matched and exciting race overall. That being said, I'm going to pick apart this field and see what the results give me. The underlying question coursing through the SIM is this - who will win the Derby? Let's meet the field.

1. Adage

Jolene Danner's speedy black colt is breaking from the rail, a place that is considered a curse for Derby entrants. Nevertheless, he has a lot of speed out of the gate, so he shouldn't be crushed back and boxed in. Look for him on the front end. He is three for five lifetime, with wins in the Grade 2 Two Year Old Marathon and this year's Grade 3 Texan Derby. Adage is coming into this race after a thrilling second-place finish behind Harry Potter by a neck in the Kentucky Blue Stakes. He has $258,000 in earnings and has been one of the leading contenders on the Triple Crown trail. Will he bounce off his gritty effort in Kentucky two weeks ago? Or does he have the freshness and the energy to hold off his challengers in Louisville today? Personally, I'm worried for both him and Harry Potter. I hope they didn't leave it all behind on the track in their latest stretch duel.

2. Brakebills

This gray colt is Todd Lucas' very first Derby entrant. Brakebills is very versatile as far as positioning goes, but I expect him to be nestled in mid-pack throughout the race, making his move splitting horses. A three-time winner and earner of more than $190k, Brakebills won the Border Derby in Week 2 and then finished a game second to Saratoga in the Albuquerque Park Derby in Week 4. He is coming into this race off a decent amount of rest - a little more than two and a half weeks, in fact! That's more than some of the horses in this field can say. Brakebills is attempting to become his sire's first Classic winner (which would be the feather in Magician's cap, since he seems to have sired everything else in the book). However, he has mostly faced the second-stringers of this crop. Can he hold his own against horses like Forward and Spectacular? However he does, I expect him to be running at the end.

3. Changing Guard

This chestnut colt is well-rested. After a decent two year-old campaign which included a year-end's win in the Grade 2 Empire Maker Stakes, Keith Maidlow's racehorse came back to win the Grade 2 Battle Cry Stakes in Lexington in Week 3. In races like the Battle Cry, he rushed up to take the lead by margins of up to eight lengths. Don't let that frighten you away from him, though. He has shown the ability to rate, including a scenario in the Empire Maker Stakes last year, where he sat fourth or fifth for most of the race before making his move at the far turn. This horse has Classic written all over him - his sire was a Triple Crown winner, and his dam is a full sister to a mare who produced another Triple Crown winner. He has earned $191,600 in three wins in five starts. Due to the speed in this race, I would look for him to be a comfortable fifth or sixth rather than on the lead. You never know, though!

4. Check Yes Or No

LaDonna King's handsome bay colt is a speedster as well, and his battle with horses like Adage and Voldemort will be a sight to see. Check Yes Or No has won three out of his four career starts. His first defeat came in the Grade 1 New Orleans Derby two weeks ago, where both he and Eh Hee were blown past by Grimmauld Place. Besides that, he has a pair of Grade 3 wins plus a maiden special romp by nearly five lengths. A $151,500 earner, Check Yes Or No's race in New Orleans shouldn't have tuckered him out overmuch. Versus Adage, he is the much fresher horse. His pedigree is a little weak for a mile and a quarter, though. I mean, Just Victory/Change the Past isn't a bad pedigree by any means, but to me, it screams nine furlongs. We'll just have to wait and see if this tiny bay frontrunner can keep his lead all the way down to the wire.

5. Ezekiel

This dark bay colt was undefeated until Friday, Week 4, when Spectacular beat him to the wire by a head in the Grade 1 Southern California Derby. A pacesetter, Ezekiel set decent fractions but was worn down by Eric Nalbone's chestnut colt. Owned by Kevin Hern, Ezekiel boasts three stakes wins, including a victory in last year's Grade 1 Inglewood Futurity. He is not a "need the lead" type of horse - in the Futurity and the Loki Masterpiece Stakes earlier this year, he sat back second or third before making his move. That bodes well for the colt, who has earned $286,000 in his short career. However, should he go for it - and he just might, depending on his mood as well as the jockey's - he will face a blistering pace set by Adage, Check Yes Or No, and Voldemort. This is a race in which Ezekiel will need to rate to be a factor, otherwise he might just find himself burnt out at the six furlong marker.

6. Forward

The early second choice, Karie McBrian's black colt has been nothing but perfect in his four race career. With wins in all of his starts, he is a force to be reckoned with in this year's Derby. Last time out, he scored a win in the Grade 1 Hot Springs Derby on Monday, Week 4, edging out Guinness by three-fourths of a length. Other than that, he has claimed a duo of Grade 3 wins and a maiden race as well. He is the earner of $255,000 in prize money. In all of his starts, Forward has been in mid-pack - third, fourth, fifth, and so on. With the amount of good speed that is in this race, it sets it up for the closers. If Forward can sit far enough back and close into the blistering pace that is almost guaranteed here, we might just have our Derby winner. And why not? He's done nothing wrong so far, after all.

7. Fugitive

One win in four starts, and the rest are seconds. He's earned just $117,500. Fugitive is the longshot in this field. Rather than send Commander to the Derby for his third horse - Commander destroyed the Lexington last Friday and is pointing towards Baltimore - Eric Nalbone sent Fugitive. In his short career, he's been beaten by horses like Strategic, Check Yes Or No, and Pinnacle Gulch. However, he has outfinished Sand Castle Maker and Saratoga, both of whom are in this race. He's by a stallion sired by Awake As I Am, so that sits well with me. Like Forward beside him as well as many others in the race, Fugitive is a horse that likes to run in the middle of the pack. He lays low for most of the race and then makes an electrifying move on the far turn. Can that electricity power him home to win the Derby as the longest shot on the board? Anything can happen. It's the Derby, for crying out loud!

8. Grimmauld Place

Since his stunning upset in which he beat Check Yes Or No and Eh Hee in the New Orleans Derby, Art Vandelay's handsome dark bay has become a fan favorite. Before that, he had only won twice - a maiden race and a narrow victory in a small stakes at Adolescent Acres. Other than that, he ran gamely in defeat against Padfoot in Week 2 and was clobbered by the likes of Ezekiel, Brakebills, and Stay There near the beginning of his career. But with his victory in Louisiana, he securely stamped his place with the best of his crop. He has three wins in five starts and nearly $195,000 in purse money. Now he's in Louisville and looking to score another small upset. If he wins, he'll be coming out of the clouds to do so. I wouldn't be surprised to see him second to last or even last throughout the race. I, myself, think he has a live shot to win the Louisville Derby. He's been improving steadily since his maien race and his New Orleans Derby certainly reflected that.

9. Guinness

Poor Guinness. This year has not been kind to him. Eric Nalbone's extremely well-bred bay colt, after nice wins in his two year-old season, came back this year to finish second to Brakebills in the Border Derby and second again to Forward in the Hot Springs Derby. He's not a bad horse - he's won half of his starts and $140,000 as well. If there's anything we shouldn't doubt about him, though, it's his ability to get the distance. His pedigree screams "distance," especially his bottom half. I mean, come on! Out of a Long Island Classic winner, who is sired by a Long Island Classic winner and out of a mare who is by a Derby winner and is a half sister to two Derby winners. It doesn't get much better than that, folks. And if he does decently here, he'd be a good prospect for New York in Week 9! Guinness will be in the first flight of horses for sure. If he's not sitting tenth or closer throughout the race, I will be surprised. He'll be running at the end, though - that I'm sure of!


10. Harry Potter

Here he is, the early favorite for the Louisville Derby! Alysse Peverell's black colt has set the world on fire since he made his debut last year. His only loss was a narrow defeat in the Steward's Cup Juvenile behind Eh Hee. Besides that, he has been brilliant, winning the Tremendous Stakes at Dirtway in Week 2 and then coming back in Week 4 to run down pacesetter Adage in a thrilling rendition of the Grade 1 Kentucky Blue Stakes. He is the highest earner in the field, with $671,000. He's also the highest priced - Alysse bought him for a whopping $25 million at auction! In races where there wasn't any real speed, Harry Potter took the lead himself and loped home to victory. However, as shown in Lexington two weeks ago, the colt can rate, and is successful when he does so. There's so much speed in this race that I can't imagine Migliore would send this colt to the front. The only way to win here is to not get cooked on the front end. Plus, there are questions about his fitness. Will he be at his best after a gut-wrenching victory in the Kentucky Blue? Or will he bounce and be too tired to give his best effort today? This is a favorite with a lot of question marks.

11. Padfoot

Scott Eiland's handsome black colt has ran more times than any other horse in the field, besides Stay There. In his six starts, though, he has found the finish line first in four of them. The other two were still on the board. He's won three stakes, including the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes in Week 2. His narrow defeat to Ants Marching in the New York, New York Stakes in Week 4, where he struggled with the sloppy going, brought his total earnings to $302,500. It's all about the pace for Padfoot - if there's no speed, he'll gladly take the lead. If we've got a bunch of speed racers - and, as you well know, we do - he'll sit back, sometimes as far back as the tail of the field. I have absolutely no idea where he might be in this field. We'll have to wait and see if he gets the job done. I'll tell you this, though - if I ever had a crush on a horse, this colt would be it! He's a good-looking, robust colt in perfect health. Roses would sure look great on his neck.

12. Sand Castle Maker

Art Vandelay must have done something right at one point, because he has two horses in this field! What a great duo he has, too. This is his second entry. In his previous start, the Buccaneer Derby in Week 3, Sand Castle Maker finished a came second to Commander, who's not here. Before that, he was a strong winner in the Grade 2 Giacomo Stakes in Week 1. He has three wins in five starts and has earned just over $190,000. He'll be far back, just like his stablemate, Grimmauld Place. Maybe they'll even be side by side going into the first turn! It would certainly be a sight to see a pair of Art Vandelay's red and white maple leaf adorned silks flying past us. Sand Castle Maker is a son of distance specialists, so the ten furlongs should be well within his reach. He'll have plenty of stretch to come flying late!

13. Saratoga

I've heard a lot of buzz about this horse lately. I understand where people are coming from - what's not to like? After all, his trainer is Laura Ferguson, who has won two Derbies in her training career. He's just starting to come into his own. After a fourth place finish in last year's Bubbly Stakes, he came back in the Giacomo and finished a desperate second to Sand Castle Maker. After two and a half weeks, he came back in the Albuquerque Park Derby to defeat favorite Brakebills by a half length. His pedigree is exquisite. Saratoga is by a Derby winner - Flames - and his dam, Come Dancing, is a half sister to Long Island Classic winner Home Run Derby and Derby runner-up Sport of Queens. The speed situation sets up perfectly for Saratoga, who likes to do his running from far back. With a Derby-winning jockey aboard, this is a horse that you simply cannot ignore. Although he may not be in the same league as the favorites, he might prove us all wrong at the wire.

14. Spectacular

This handsome chestnut colt is probably Eric Nalbone's best shot to win this race. He's won four of five lifetime, and the only blemish on his record is when he finished fourth behind Eh Hee, Harry Potter, and stablemate Commander in the Steward's Cup Juvenile. Other than that, he's earned $422,500 and has defeated a slew of horses, including Padfoot and Ezekiel. Spectacular is coming off a win in the Grade 1 Southern California Derby, where he just barely defeated pacesetter Ezekiel by a head. Before that, he was a nice winner in the Grade 2 Pacific Coast Highway Stakes. Look for him to be mid-pack, although I wouldn't be surprised if he was farther back than tenth due to the pace of this race. He's piloted by David Faulkner, who certainly knows what he's doing, having ridden in every Derby since Year 21. Despite all the plusses, Spectacular isn't getting much love in the early betting. He's fast, though, and I wouldn't be surprised if he took the victory today.

15. Stay There

Cleo Patra's dark bay colt was a late entry to this race. For the first part of this year, he's been beating up on fields down in Panama and Puerto Rico . Last time out, he won the Grade 2 Panama Derby by a straining neck. He's earned just over $215,000. One good thing about Stay There? He's already run a mile and three-sixteenths, which is a sixteenth of a mile longer than any other colt in this race has gone. He won't be dead last throughout the race, but he'll be far off the pace for sure. Stay There has a nice pedigree - maybe it's worth it to mention that he has four Derby winners in his first three generations alone? I think so. However, he's been beating pretty weak fields down south. The last time he faced horses of this caliber, he was third behind Ezekiel and Brakebills, and they probably aren't even the best horses in this field, either. Can Stay There translate his wonderful Panama form to compete with these horses?

16. Strategic

Strategic is three for three lifetime, and last time out, he pulled out a gutsy victory in the Grade 1 Sunshine Park Derby, defeating Fugitive by a half length. This winner of $232,500 likes to do his running wherever it suits him on that day. He can be close to the pace, or he can come from very far back. As a two year-old, he won his maiden race near the back of the pack, but in the Jockey Club Stakes at this very track, he sat just off the pace and wore them down in the final eighth of a mile. Strategic is attempting to become the very first Japan-bred to win the Louisville Derby. I imagine Rachel Sadler is very high on her colt right now. There's nothing to knock about him, save for the lack of experience. In two of his three starts, he's broken awkwardly from the gate. In a seventeen horse field, that might hurt him.

17. Voldemort

Finally, on the far outside, there's Susie Raisher's enigma of a colt. Voldemort has only started three times, but when he's raced, he's shown brilliance that matches up with every one of the horses here. Like Strategic, he's had trouble getting out of the gate. However, unlike his neighbor to the inside, he needs to get to the front to do his best running. A poor start will hurt his chances. He needs to go after Adage on the rail and cut in to save ground, or who knows where he'll be at the far turn. Nevertheless, this high-priced yearling is coming off a strong win in the Grade 2 Rivalry Stakes in California. Voldemort has three wins in three starts and has earned $118,500. He's sired by Awake As I Am. The super sire is not getting any younger at age 13 and still has not sired a Derby winner. Can Voldemort earn the roses, not only for himself, but for his star father as well? Can he prove himself to be the best of his crop, despite his inexperience?

There you have it, folks. It's a great Derby field, full of questions just itching to be answered. Unfortunately, I myself will not be attending the Derby. Last minute plans...got to love them! I sincerely hope everyone enjoys the race. Most importantly, let's hope everyone comes home safe. May the best colt win!

Just to let you know, I like Forward to win this race. If Adage and Check Yes Or No don't burn themselves out and Harry Potter isn't too tired, they have a shot as well. Voldemort winning would surprise me, but not in a bad way. Saratoga and Grimmauld Place will almost certainly be running as well.

Thank you for reading and happy Derby day!

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