What Becomes of SC Juvenile Fillies Winners

Original article written by Alysse Peverell posted 9 years 0 weeks ago

Every year elite two-year-old fillies take to the Steward’s Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and every year that filly is proclaimed the early favorite for the Louisville Oaks (G1). An in depth study of the past five years and statistics from the past ten show that not only is this favoritism seemingly unwarranted, but that the winner of the race rarely sees that championship form again. The last Juvenile Fillies winner to win the Oaks was Tiara, back in the old SIM (Year 15). So where are all the future champions hiding during the end of their freshman season? If they’re not winning the Juvenile Fillies, are they also-rans or are they not in the starting gate? Why don’t the sophomore stars seem to hold their form at three?

Year 38
The most recent Juvenile Fillies winner, All I Can Be, has found the winner’s circle only once thus far at three, capturing a Grade 3, while settling for an eighth place finish in the Derby rather than sticking with her gender in the Oaks. Second place finisher Eve was a good second in the Oaks, but only just got her first win at three this past week (Week 12). The winner of the Oaks skipped the Juvenile Fillies. This year’s running of the Juvenile Fillies saw some good success from a couple mid-pack finishers. Sleep Safely won the Long Island Acorn (G1) and Loquacious won two Grade 1s, including the Manistique against older.
Juvenile Fillies runners Oaks finishes: 2, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11
Juvenile Fillies Speed Figure: 84
Winner’s Average Since: 78.5

Year 37
Although she did not win the Oaks (she ran third), Tempest has run on well since capturing the Juvenile Fillies two years ago. Her three-year-old season saw her win a Grade 1 prior to a decent fourth place finish in the Distaff. She is currently riding a three-race win streak at four, including a recent victory in the Grade 1 Faith Unwavering Stakes. She will seek another opportunity at the Distaff. Second place finisher Rowdy Behavior also came out of the race well, hitting the board in every subsequent start since the Juvenile Fillies, including a second place finish in the Oaks. While it’s not the Oaks or Steward’s Cup, Cantiga did return at three to capture South America’s Los Campeones Ladies Classic (G1). Even fourth-place finisher Hold Her Tight has run on well, still seeking a Grade 1 win at marathon distances. One of the biggest surprises from the race could be The Soulless, who finished last. That race was her only attempt at a distance greater than a mile. She has been nothing but first or second ever since, recently winning a Grade 1 and looking for Steward’s Cup glory in the Filly and Mare Dirt Mile. Of the top four finishers in this crop’s Oaks, the winner was the only one not to have run in the Juvenile Fillies.
Juvenile Fillies runners Oaks finishes: 2, 3, 4, 5, 11
Juvenile Fillies Speed Figure: 80
Winner’s Average Since: 81.3

Year 36
Although winner Dizzy had a successful career after her Juvenile Fillies victory, including a second place finish in the Steward’s Cup Ladies Route and third in the Oaks, she never won another Grade 1 again. Third place finisher Bride, on the other hand, won three Grade 1 races later in her career. Three Thirty also picked up a Grade 1 in the Baltimore Oaks, having skipped the dance in Louisville. Beautiful hit her best stride going longer, picking up a Grade 1 and showing in the Ladies Route. The top two finishers in this crop’s Louisville Oaks both skipped the Juvenile Fillies. Had they also skipped the Oaks, then the top three finishers in that race would have all come out of the Steward’s Cup.
Juvenile Fillies runners Oaks finishes: 3, 4, 5, 9
Juvenile Fillies Speed Figure: 84
Winner’s Average Since: 80.2

Year 35
We had to go back a few years, but this edition of the Juvenile Fillies is the last one to have produced the Oaks winner. It was not, however, the winner. The winner, Gracefully, won five more stakes, including a Grade 1, after her Juvenile Fillies win, but could only manage fourth place in the Oaks. Second place finisher Fire and Rain bounced badly in the Oaks and was well back. She did recover to win four more stakes after that. It was the filly who ran third in the Juvenile Fillies, Gonturan, who would take home the lilies. She only won two more stakes in her career after that effort, though, only one of which was a Grade 1. Oaks aside, one of the key races to come from this edition of the Juvenile Fillies was the Distaff two years later, in which fifth place finisher Prayer and second place finisher Gonturan ran 1-2, respectively.
Juvenile Fillies runners Oaks finishes: 1, 4, 5, 6
Juvenile Fillies Speed Figure: 82
Winner’s Average Since: 74.5

Year 34
When Wizard’s Fire won the Juvenile Fillies this year with a dazzling 91 speed figure and followed it up with another 91 in her sophomore debut, it seemed logical to try the boys on the Triple Crown Trail. She put forth a good effort to be fourth and was unable to recover her winning form for the remainder of the season. In Wizard’s Fire’s absence, second place finisher Valentine Heart swept in to take the Oaks and finished off the year with a win in the Distaff and Simmy Award honors. Third place finisher Relief was fifth in the Oaks, but did rebound from that to win a Grade 1 later in the year.
Juvenile Fillies runners Oaks finishes: 1, 5
Juvenile Fillies Speed Figure: 91
Winner’s Average Since: 78.9

The past ten years shows a total of 39 Oaks starters from Juvenile Fillies participants, with an average finish position of 5.2 in the Oaks. In three of those ten years, the Oaks winner did come out of the Juvenile Fillies, but none were the winner and in two cases the winner had chosen to skip the Oaks in favor of the Derby. In ten years, four Juvenile Fillies winners bypassed the oaks. The six who did run in the Oaks had an average finish position of fourth with none finishing better than third. One of the key statistics is that the average speed figure that won the past ten Juvenile Fillies is 85.2. The average speed figures earned by the winners following their two-year-old seasons is only 77.7, Tempest being the only filly who improved her average after she was two.

It would seem that the Juvenile Fillies winners are mostly precocious fillies who run well after two, but their peers catch up with and surpass them.

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