Louisville Here We Come: A Glance into the Madness

Original article written by Jack Meyer posted 9 years 3 weeks ago

The prep races for the Derby have come and gone, the field is taking shape right before our very eyes. Owners are flip flopping back and forth whether to send their hopeful to Louisville or skip it, contemplating the race scenarios, the pace scenarios, every scenario a SIM fanatic like myself can imagine, these owners are contemplating, yes it is Derby time, where this madness is good madness.

I made a trip around to each hopefuls barn to get a glimpse at each contender, to get a feel of how their owners are feeling, and to catch up on a few runners that I’ve visited in the past that have made their way to the Derby. It should be quite a ride, with a whole lot to cover, so sit back and enjoy, let the madness begin.

I first took a trip to the Lucas Davenport barn; Lucas has a talented colt by the name of Fargo that he is sending to the Derby. Fargo has seen just about everything, he took out Linguistics in the Persevere Stakes, whom is the only colt to beat Through the Ghost whom he beat in the Hogwarts. He got nipped by another Derby hopeful Hydra in the End Results Stakes, then found himself in with the Art Vandalay super freak filly Skyfall in the New York New York last out. Fargo is the “A” typical Derby horse who fly's under the radar before delivering a monumental effort catapulting him to the next level, though he hasn’t run against the likes of Proverb, Coronation, Through the Ghost, and Doctor, I tend to think he matches well with them. When asked if Lucas thinks Fargo is primed for a big race in the Derby, “This is my first foray into the best level of dirt routers, and for as long as I have been kicking around this game, have not had a lot of "big horses." In fact, I'm not even sure he is one. I certainly hope he will be, but it is too early to tell: we'll know more in a few weeks. I would like to give a shout out to Kris Bobby who sold me Fargo, and then was gracious enough to buy a headshot for him. He was obviously a special horse from his workouts, and just having the opportunity to buy him and then participate in my first Triple Crown is greatly appreciated. Many thanks to her!”

He continues, “I have no unusual insights into it, I do think after watching horses for years run big races in the SIM off the 3 off/2 off schedule, that he is ready to run a big one. Truthfully, that is all I can do: try to get my horse ready to run his best possible race in a "big" race. In general I have entered him into his races early, and not worried or noticed at all about whom else shows up. I have a preset schedule in his notes, actually cut and pasted 3 different options when I bought him, and stuck to plan C from day one, as I think that gives him his best chance to peak for this series. After this series is over I will know a lot more about him, and will then reassess and think more about where and when he goes from here”.

I also asked Lucas about Fargo’s racing style since his best races have come with him on or close to the lead, horses like Ace have a lot of tactical speed and I was wondering what Lucas expected for Fargo’s best case scenario. “I am most assuredly concerned about his running style, and I think he may be best as a Preakness horse (sorry, Baltimore Crown) in game. However, since there is nothing I can really do to change his running style in game, (I can't tell the jockey to take him to the rail, and let the others go, as an example) he is going to just go out there and hopefully 1) run his race and 2) hopefully some others don't run their best that day. I honestly don't know any of the other horses in the race besides Skyfall”.

As I ventured out of the Davenport barn, I chose to make a stop at Phil Hoeflich’s barn and catch up with Battle Ground. Battle Ground is battle tested; his run in the Cape Stakes was solid seeing as he ran with You Go On and Tightrope, both of whom are expected in the Derby. He fizzled in the Juvenile, but that race was staked from top to bottom, so we can forgive that one, his race in the Tremendous Stakes was a solid victory, though it lacked the depth needed to test the young colt. It was his run in the New York New York that set him up for the Derby in my opinion, he couldn’t match the filly Skyfall, but he did take out the aforementioned Fargo running 2nd. I saw enough out of him as I glanced at his PP’s, but I wanted to know how Phil felt about his chances, “This pretty much sums it up, “2014-08-30 Whisperer: This horse is like a duck when it comes to water, it just glides on through!”, If you look at his races, he's done well when there has been moisture in the track, and the Derby will be run on a dry one, so...”.

He continued, “He is a scary galloper and I think if you go back to his run in the Cape Stakes, Tightrope was a head in front of You Go On, who was a neck in front of Battle Ground at the wire. I was happy to see him run well in his last out, defeating Fargo, but again, the track was listed good, so there's that" I finished up by asking Phil what needed to happen for Battle Ground to have the roses draped over his back, “To sum it up, it's the Derby, and if I have something that fits in the field, I'll run it, because ANYTHING can happen in the SIM Derby, y'know? Doctor, Ace, Coronation, I mean, there are some potential monsters in this field, but if BG gets a top 10 finish out of it, I'll be happy...I just hope he runs a respectable race, that's all”.

Next up I made a stop in the Susie Rydell barn to visit Susie and her two thrillers Doctor and Hydra, the former will likely be on many lists to win the Derby. I started with Doctor, he is undefeated in 4 starts and looks primed for a big one, Susie took a different road with Doctor than the norm, she chose to stay out of the Juvenile and face the talented Light the Dark in the Flames Stakes. I also saw his win in the Sunshine Derby, an amazing run also, this colt hasn’t had a SF under 91. I asked Susie if he was as much of a freak as he looks like on paper, and wanted to know what it’s like to own such a special horse.

“I suppose for many, skipping the Juvenile might be viewed as a "different route," but it's quite typical in my barn. The Doctor, like many of my homebreds, is a colt I'd expect to improve with age and distance, and not necessarily poses the speed and early maturity necessary that excels in the Juvenile. Harkness was quite the outlier for me. The 1-3 prep schedules is also one I've long favored for readying a horse for a shot at the Derby, which precludes a Week 16 start. I had planned to run in the Bubbly rather than the Flames, but thought battling with Proverb second out would do little to benefit the Doctor in the long run. It worked out well that he was able to get a gut-check from a very, very nice colt though. Is he a freak? He's certainly been freakish thus far, but I don't know the answer to that question any more than anyone else does. I've sent a lot of colts who I thought looked very good on paper to the Louisville Derby over the last several years, including three fellow winners of the Sunshine Derby, two Southern California Derby winners, and two Rivalry Stakes winners. Some of those sported flashy speed figures, some didn't, but I haven't had a Louisville Derby winner since Year 19. It's not an easy race to win or predict. It sure is fun to come in with a horse of this caliber though, especially a homebred. He's what you hope they all are when you gallop them for the first time, work them for the first time, and run them for the first time. He's answered every question asked of him so far, and I'm looking forward to seeing if he can answer another”.

Next I wanted to talk about Hydra; he’s no slouch himself having knocked off Fargo in the End Results Stakes and a solid showing in the Buccaneer Derby. I see his figures may be a step off of the elite, and I wanted to know if Susie thought Hydra was a tad below the upper echelon. “I'm a believer that speed figures don't always tell the whole story. Of those good-looking Derby prospects I mentioned earlier, one had never run faster than an 82 going into the race. That was Mint, who was four-for-four going in and ran a good second behind Castle Keep. Some just seem to do what they need to do to win, or are more dependent on how the race sets up to boost their figures, but are more than capable of popping up with a big number when they need to. Mint followed his Derby with a big effort in taking the Queen's Derby. Whether or not that's the case with Hydra, or if he's a cut below, is a question that can only be answered by running him. His pedigree is second to none and, as a baby, his works outshone the Doctor's. He's another very, very serious three-year-old in a field full of them”.

Finally, I placed Susie on the spot with Hydra in one corner and Doctor in the other, I wanted to know what she thought would come of her two stars in the race and if she thought the star would align enough for one of her boys to be draped in roses Week 6 Friday. “Last year was a rather humbling experience on the Triple Crown trail for me. I came in with a trio of colts who I thought might be capable of dividing and conquering. Needless to say, I have no shiny new trophies to show for it. I have no idea how the Doctor and Hydra will fair when the gates open. I know I'm very happy with how they're coming into the race. It's also nice that they have different running styles, so the dynamics of how the race unfolds keeps my options open. They're not in different corners, they're both in my corner, and I'll have my fingers crossed that one of them ends up draped in roses. Of course, if it's time for the first dead heat in Louisville Derby history, I could certainly get on board with that!”

Whew, very informative, oh how I love Derby time. Next I took a stroll down the rows and rows of good horses that Art Vandalay owns to see Coronation and Skyfall. Both are super freaky and hold a lot of hopes and dreams for their owner. I wanted to start with Coronation, he didn’t see much in the Keyboard Courage Stakes or the Fountain of Gold, I think his rivals are avoiding him, but that’s my thoughts, I wanted to know what Art thought about this. “I should first thank fellow SIM player Erin Sanderson for convincing me to buy Coronation's dam (Inherit the Crown) off the sales page for $125k, I was torn as to whether to spend the money or not, and she convinced me. I am a little worried that he didn't get enough out of his prep. I really wanted to win the Keyboard Courage Stakes because I own him and wanted to win the race named after him, in hindsight it could be a big error on my part. I don't think people ducked him, I just feel that there are so many week 4 Friday preps that people can really shop for their spots."

Next was Skyfall, she disposed of two nice fillies in the Silver Bullets Stakes in Mine and Hallowed Halls; she then took on the boys in the New York New York. That race may slip under the radar at first glance, but Battle Ground is another Derby hopeful that won the Tremendous Stakes and held his own in the Juvenile. I wanted to know how confident Art was after that race, and if he thought she was ready for Proverb and company, “I feel that Skyfall is my best shot to win the Derby, she is a mile and a quarter horse for sure who has constantly run faster speed figures than Coronation. I think she is the best 3 year old dirt filly in the SIM, but I'm not sure anyone can beat Doctor, he has blazing speed and stamina, and I have had nightmares about him wiring the Derby field."

The last question I had for Art was how it felt like to have not one, but two Derby hopefuls this year, "It really is a blessing. To have one horse make the Derby is a real achievement. Seeing two horses make the field is amazing, especially with both of them being amongst the favorites. You had running your horses against each other, but the Derby only happens once in a horses lifetime, so you have to take a shot!"

It’s always a pleasure catching up with Eric Nalbone, and this time I was able to get a glimpse into his barn to see his two hopefuls up front and personal, Ace and Feud. I wanted to start with Ace, costing a hefty $10 million, he should be a superstar, his debut was a mystery, but he more than made up for it in his sophomore outing with a magical 97 SF. His 4th place finish in the Juvenile was very nice giving the talent that was stacked up for that race. His California Derby was quite good, he beat a colt by the name of Rodrigo De Triano who is entered in the Derby as well, he is no slouch in anyone’s eye, and the fact that Ace took him out is solid. I asked him if he thought Ace didn’t have his best Juvenile day and didn’t fire, or was he on top of his game, “First of all - the horse that beat him in his debut, Spaceman, might be one of the best horses with the worst record in the game! Give him two more lengths in his second and third starts and he's a potential freak coming into the year. Sometimes the difference between a horse that becomes a superstar in the game and a horse that just fades into indifference is just a couple lengths and some luck early in their career ... drain their confidence and you might never get it back in time to do anything useful with it, which isn't the fault of anything except some bad luck.”

Eric continued, “In terms of answering your question, we absolutely saw the best Ace could offer in the Juvenile and he didn't miss by that much. Finishing 4th in a blanket finish is a result to be really proud of, not be upset about. That said, he clearly needs to find about half a length from that day to win the Derby (plus maybe more if you think that Doctor is better than the Juvie bunch), but I think he can: the best results I've had from Wonder-line mares have come when those horses get older and go longer (Doc Halladay, Ice and Fire, Sleep Safely [Ace's half-sister], etc.). They aren't 1 1/16th mile horses, and neither are Maelstrom sons: they all want to go 10 furlongs, and I don't think Ace will be any different.”

“Are Lions Real and Bronze Horseman are two great examples of Maelstrom sons that lost the Juvie and won the Derby, and Doc Halladay is an example of a horse who ran 4th in the Juvie and won the Derby who is from this same female family for me (and I suspect prompted the mating that The Steward selected for Sleep Safely). If Ice and Fire didn't have the misfortune to be in the same crop as Doc, I'd have a second Derby winner with the same "lose the Juvie win the Derby" pattern. In short: I'd rather own Ace than Through The Ghost, given my Derby record with Juvie losers vs. my Derby record with Derby winners, though I bet Erin feels justifiably different! Ace has done everything he's supposed to this year, I am thrilled with the latest win, and I've got really high hopes for the Derby. I think most reasonable people would take Doctor, Through the Ghost, Proverb, or Coronation, but I don't think Ace is in a bad spot either.”

Eric’s other contender is Feud; he ran a 92 to a lesser colt who is having trouble winning a NW3 Lifetime race. He breaks his maiden next out, and then finds himself pitted against Coronation in the Inglewood Futurity; Coronation was all business that day destroying the field. He scored a win in the Border Stakes before facing off against a filly named Just One Ruler who chose to go to the Oaks, I wanted to know where Feud was confidence wise and if Eric thought he could run with stablemate Ace and the rest of this group.

“I don't know how Feud stacks up - I didn't expect him to lose to that filly, and I worry that he might be more of a Preakness than a Derby type (Ants Marching x Just Victory doesn't scream 10f), so I'm contemplating whether he is for sure going to start or not, but he may as well be in Kentucky and entered just in case. I personally think he's a cut below Ace (and by extension, the others in the field), but the talent to run a 92 and a couple G1 placing’s certainly means he's good enough to be in the field. He's not the first and won't be the last horse that Coronation beats by open lengths either! We'll see where I go with him since I'm not sure yet how to play my cards there, though I tend to just take my Derby shots when they're presented rather than live with the "what could have been?" if he scratches and blasts a smaller stakes by six with a 92. Worst case scenario he doesn't get back to form ever and I ruin a nice colt, but best case scenario I win the Derby, so ... I guess the question is how big a bet you'd be willing to make, ya know? Rather take a shot and win than sit on the sidelines and definitely NOT win the Derby with him."

Lastly, I wanted to know whom Eric is pinning his hopes on here, I love underdogs, so I can’t help but root for Feud, but I wanted to know what Eric thought. “Ace-- I don't feel as good going into this as I did with Doc Halladay, Braveheart, or Saga, but I feel great about him and he's at worst the fifth choice in the field. I love my chances and we'll go from there!”

As I continued my Derby rounds I came upon the Danner barn, I stopped in real quick to talk to Jolene Danner about her 3YO hopeful Linguistics. I know he is special, he has faced off against Through the Ghost 3 times delivering that colt his only career loss, he seems to know that rival very well. I asked Jolene is she thought the fact that her colt has seen the likely Derby favorite 3 times if she thinks this is an edge, “I'm not sure if I'm super pleased that his last 3 races have been against Through the Ghost, but I suppose it might give him an advantage in being fitter. He ran his eyeballs out the last race and I'm a little afraid that it was too much for him. I'm glad he didn't win, I dislike winning my last prep, but I'm glad he ran well. You have to race into the Derby to have a shot at winning but it's hard to balance enough fitness with too much exertion before the main event.”

I followed that up with a question on how Jolene thinks her boy will fare here, and how she sees it all coming together, “I think Linguistics is a pretty talented colt. He's my last Lore baby and I'd love for him to take the roses. He's got Crown and Classic winning brothers but never has a Lore baby been able to capture the Derby. I'm actually a little keener on my Oaks prospects though with Aristocrats, if you do an article about that as well I'm happy to talk to you about my favorite girl in training right now.”

The Jon Xett barn is my next stop; I made my way to the stall of Derby hopeful Kentucky to see if I could get the scoop on the ins and outs of this guy. I noticed Kentucky hasn’t had one bad race; his debut had the once promising Stagecoach in it whom fell out of the limelight after a few rough outings. His third start in the Bubbly Stakes had Proverb in it, he ran good against one of the Derby favorites in that one finishing 3rd. He faced off against Until the End in the Are Lions Real Stakes finishing 2nd, Until the End in confirmed for the Derby now, as he should be. He again saw Proverb in the Battle Cry Stakes, I don’t think anyone was beating Proverb that day, he was all business. I told Jon my one worry about his colt was that he could run with the like of Proverb, but could he beat him, I asked Jon what he thinks Kentucky’s chances are and if he thinks he can shut down the late charge of Proverb and company in the stretch.

“In his debut, he ran well in mid-pack to Nalbone's Stagecoach, when he broke his maiden, he again ran in midpack. The next three stakes races, Kentucky ran in short fields where he seemed to be forced to press the pace or run on the lead. In the Bubbly Stakes, I tried to shake things up with a jockey change; big mistake that resulted in his worst speed figure.”

Jon continued, “In the Louisville Derby, Kentucky's best shot at getting his picture taken is to let the speed horses go on, lay 5th or 6th and then run with Proverb, Wish Upon a Star, Safe Passage and Skyfall from the top of the stretch hopefully catching a speed on the lead challenged Doctor. The other speed types like Ace, Feud, Hyperbole and You Go On may rate better than my horse and have too much left to catch. Then again, Doctor could Spend a Buck and blow them all away all the way around the sandy loam track with a 100 speed figure. Just as I am unable to lay off the high fastball, I am unable to stay away from the Louisville Derby. So as that fastball seemingly bee-lines straight for my forehead, I'll close my eyes, take a swing and hope to hit one out of the park. Does anyone know of a good athletic trainer at Kentucky? I think I am going to need one after the race.”

Next up I caught up with Danny Derby to discuss Wish Upon A Star, one of two fillies taking on the boys in the Derby; I sensed that Danny was in a hurry, so I kept it as short as possible. Wish Upon A Star is a monster no matter what gender she races against, she ran 2nd to Rekindle the Flame in the Juvenile Fillies beating Skyfall in the meantime. She beat likely Oaks second choice Aristocrats in the Torrid Nights Stakes next time out, and followed that up with a monster prep in the New Orleans Derby where she met up with Safe Passage running 2nd behind that colt. I asked Danny where he stands as far as Wish Upon A Star’s chances, and what he thinks needs to happen for his filly to prevail. “She'll need to run the race of her life and have a whole lot of luck as well to win.” Like I said, short and sweet, on to the next.

Norman Architecture and Rodrigo De Triano were next on my list. Rodrigo handled his first challenge with ease though there wasn’t much in them as far as depth, I think his next two filled that hole when he beat the likes of Albus Severus and Dj Romba, both second tier but solid. His run in the Texan Derby against You Go On and Safe Passage finishing third was top notch as well as well as his 2nd place finish in the Southern California Derby against Ace. His pedigree is top notch coming from the same lines as With Kind Regards, The Art of Racing, and Killing Curse, so he is bred nicely as well.

I asked Norman his thoughts on Rodrigo, “I was pleased with his debut, although he didn't beat anything of note he ran a solid speed figure and I was very encouraged by this. Next race I step him up to a G3 and he managed to hold off some better horses from some top stables over 1 1/16 which is obviously too short a distance for him. For his final 2yo race I decided to bypass the Juvi and run hum in the G2 2yo marathon over 1 1/8, I thought the extra distance would be of benefit to him as his brothers all wanted to longer race to show their best, I was pleased he managed to win and post his best SF, he is a front runner but he was taken on by a colt of Alysse's and he managed to stay on best for a narrow victory.

Norman continued, “For his 3yo campaign I had to start him off back at 1 1/16 in the Texan Derby, He was very disappointing and could only manage a poor third behind You Go On and Safe Passage. I stepped him back up to 1 1/8 in the So Cal Derby and was more encouraged by his 2nd behind Ace, again being taken on for the lead he battled hard before being beaten by a better horse.” I asked him what he was expecting out of Rodrigo in the Derby, “I'm hopeful he will run a solid race in the Derby , The extra distance will help but this looks a decent race this year but as they say you have to be in it to win it!. Art seems to be in the driving seat and if my guy doesn't win I think Coronation will. I think he will do better over 1 1/2 in the future so unless he wins the Derby he’ll side step Baltimore and go for the Long Island Classic week 9.”

I made my way to the Cleo Patra barn for my next stop to catch up with Cleo and You Go On. His debut wasn’t among the elite on paper, but a win is a win, his run against fellow Derby hopeful Tightrope served as a glimpse into what this colt is really about. His dead heat with Destined in the Trial by Summer Graduate Futurity showed the grit this colt has, and Destined was set up for the Derby until he faltered a little recently knocking him off the trail. His Texan Derby win was monumental for You Go On, the next three under him in that one could go head to head with the best of them in my opinion, and his Kentucky Blue run was gritty, that race was jam packed with talent.

I told Cleo that a lot of owners are scared of a big bounce after such a challenging effort in their final prep, I wanted to know how she felt about that idea, “First of all, I love your articles and how well researched and interesting they are! Running a 90SF just 2 weeks out from the Derby makes me nervous of a bounce on the big day, that said, this is a crazy group of colts (and fillies!), with so much talent in the field, absolutely anything could happen.”

I also asked what she expected out of her colt and the rest of the field on that day, “I expect to see him running on the pace, but I just can't see this field letting him get away with a wire-to-wire victory. His win in week 2, his huge effort in week 4 and his pedigree have all earned him the right to run. All I can do is hope that the Derby is much like the Juvenile where a so-called 'underdog' took home the trophy.” Thank you Cleo for the kind words and reading my articles, much appreciated.

Erin Sanderson and Through the Ghost were next on my Derby radar; I stopped by to catch up with one of the early favorites and his owner. Most of us already know about this colt, his 93 SF in his debut was breathtaking, and then he took out the trio of Spaceman, Michael Jordan and Answer the Call in the Thriller Stakes. He shocked the world in the Juvenile when he beat Proverb and company, I’m sure Erin wasn’t surprised. His lone loss was to fellow hopeful Linguistics in the Hogwarts Stakes, but he bounced back nicely in the Kentucky Blue Stakes where he turned the table on Linguistics, and took out You Go On in the process.

I asked Erin what the vibe was with Through the Ghost, some horses peak early then kind of level off, here is what she said, “I don't believe Ghost peaked as a two-year-old; very few of the horses from his female family do. Actually, I'm rather surprised he's still staying with it at three, though. The Sway female family is notorious (at least to me) for throwing nice two-year-olds with lots of promise that are frustrating as all get out at three and then actually do things at four and five.”

I asked Erin where Ghost stands in her mind, “With Ghost's pedigree, I'm shocked, too, that he was any good as a freshman runner. His sire suddenly became a freak in the middle of his three-year-old year (after not breaking his maiden at two, and not cracking an 80 until week 9), and he's out of a Highly Regarded mare, whose top runners want more distance than 1 1/16. So, when my guy popped up and won the Juvenile, it was a huge surprise. I wasn't expecting to lose his first start at 1 1/8 miles, but he avenged that in his second start this year. I do expect him to improve with distance; his sire was a true 1 1/4 mile horse (probably with the ability to run on further, as most Clearly Best sons have), and with Highly Regarded and classic sire Saga to back him up, along with the Sway dam line, this horse hasn't seen his favorite distance yet!”

Finally, I asked Erin what needed to happen for Ghost to come home with a Derby win, “In regards to what he has to do to win the Derby: He has to break well, stay out of traffic, and NOT bounce off his effort in the Kentucky Blue Stakes. I fully believe that he is in the top five of the colts in his crop, so hopefully I have primed him to run like one.”

Lauren Haggerty and Hyperbole are next up. Hyperbole is 4 for 4 in stakes tries in his career with a win against Cypher in the With Kind Regards Stakes, but other than that race, Hyperbole hasn’t seen much in the form of stiff competition. I asked Lauren if this was indeed the plan from the start since many players map out their races quite a bit before their prized horse starts running. “The light competition was a plan. The stakes instead of a maiden was probably easier than the maidens in Week 10 (would you have wanted to run against some of those freaks?) so I did that, but after that staying away from the top horses made sense because I think he's a LIC colt not a precocious two year old. Cruising Speed and Demonstrative are both marathoners so I want him to get to New York in good shape. I usually enter my horses pretty close to the race date, so I have the benefit of seeing who is entered and definitely picked the easiest spots for him. I'm not ashamed to say that and it got him some nice wins.” I can totally see where she is coming from; my goal is to get a win, and finding the best field to do that is always a priority.

I also noticed that Cypher was sitting this one out in favor of the Baltimore Crown, so Hyperbole’s measuring stick for his talent level is on the sidelines, but Cypher ran well against the likes of Proverb, Through The Ghost, and Doctor so I figured he would stack up well against those since his toughest rival did so as well. I asked Lauren how she felt about this issue, what she thinks needs to happen for him to win, and how she felt about Hyperbole’s chances come Derby Day, “As far as winning the Derby, I hope he wins but don't expect it! I'd like him to run well and we're going on to the LIC no matter what. I'm just surprised he's done so well running these short distances. His sire and dam could do it but didn't thrive until they got to run a mile and a half. For a horse bred to run so long he's very fast early and likes to be on the lead, so if he's going to win we'll all have a clue pretty early in the race call if they give him an easy lead. But if they pressure him then there will be a lot of really nice horses behind him chasing him down late, so it would be tough. I've got my fingers crossed, but I'll be much more optimistic if you wind up writing a Long Island Classic preview, regardless of how the Derby goes!”

Moving right along, next up I made a stop at Alysse Peverell’s barn, Alysse is sending two hopefuls to the Derby, Until the End and Tightrope. I began with Until the End, he sorts of had a wakeup call after his loss to Michael Jordan in his debut breaking his maiden with a 94 SF next time out. He took out one of Art Vandalay’s second tier colts If Walls Talked in the Greenspan, followed by a score against fellow Derby hopeful Kentucky in the Are Lions Real. Finished up his nice string of races with a victory in the Owlpha Stakes, he has done virtually everything right.

I asked Alysse what her thoughts were on this colt, was the fact of skipping the Juvenile planned to benefit this colts confidence for this big race, and what her plans were for this him in the Derby, what do you want to see happen in order for him to prevail? “Until the End wasn't really on my radar early on, especially following that debut effort. Of course, when he lit up with a 94 next out I had to take some notice. Still, I've been fairly conservative with him throughout his campaign. He's done everything right and earned his right to a shot in the Derby. We'll see what he's made of in that field, but if he can run back to his maiden score I think he could be heard from.”

Next I wanted to talk to Alysse about her other colt Tightrope, he is equally as talented as his stable mate, he has wins over You Go On and Battle Ground in the Cape Stakes to prove it. He took out Blazin Trails in the Empire Maker, and Destined in the Pacific Coast Highway Stakes, the latter being amongst the top of his class until he ran into some trouble lately. His run in the New Orleans Derby was very good, he lost by a total of 1 ½ lengths finishing 4th, the race was insanely good with many top runners in it to begin with, and to lose by that margin is nothing to be upset about. I wanted to know what Alysse thought of him, he has a nice running style, all the credentials, and is battle tested, I wanted to know what she thought would have to happen for him to prevail.

“Where Tightrope is concerned, he was more of a late bloomer, neither of my two Derby entrants would have been my hopefuls as yearlings. Tightrope's female family is what left me holding out hope for him; you could say he, too, has done everything right. You most certainly can't say it of his trainer, if you look, you will see that somebody failed to ship him to a farm between his Week 2 and Week 4 races. Despite this and running fourth, he still managed a respectable 85 speed figure. I'll be vetting him until race day and if he recovers, he'll run. I don't want to push him and risk ruining the remainder of his career, though. Should he recover, I think he has a very strong chance to be a factor in the Derby. Of course, this isn't the first time I've sabotaged the career of a talented grey three-year-old classic colt (see Buckingham's Preakness and Steward's Cup Classic - OH WAIT I DIDN'T RUN HIM).” Alysse is still on the fence with Tightrope, I hope he recovers quick enough to get him into the Derby, I think he has a good shot.

Just two more stops to go before we call it a night, next up is Ali Weasley who owns one of the likely favorites in the Derby, Proverb. The buzz surrounding this young colt has been unbelievable beginning with his debut where he blew the lights off the light posts at Adolescent Acres on that Monday night, the rest has been pretty much SIM history. His win in the Bubbly Stakes wasn’t quite as mesmerizing as his maiden win, but a win over the likes of Kentucky is still quite a feat in my opinion.

His run at Through the Ghost in the Juvenile was heart wrenching I’m sure, he just couldn’t get to him that day, I don’t know if anyone could have to be honest. His run in the Battle Cry was another amazing run, again he disposed of the talented colt Kentucky without much resistance, he was downright dominant. I told Ali that I know what I think of his chances, I think he primed for a big run Derby Day, and I’m sure he’s chomping at the bit to get another crack at Through the Ghost. With old rivalries with Through the Ghost, and new ones with Skyfall and Wish Upon a Star, I wanted to know what Ali thought of his chances here, does she think he’s ready, what exactly is going through her mind as we approach Derby Day. “Proverb is coming into the race very well, and I'm very pleased with his fitness level. He has a tendency to run hard every time, which is probably why his races always seem so impressive, but it also takes more out of him than I'd prefer. However, he's peaking right now and should run a great race if all goes well. With all that said this 3YO crop is insane and almost anything could happen.”

Last on my list is Bill Outsilver as his 3YO phenom Safe Passage, I remember discussing this guy with Bill last year before he prepped for the Steward’s Cup, so I know a little about this colt. I remember Bill saying how he coveted his other colt Michael Jordan over Safe Passage, that MJ’s works were better, and he was racing in top form, fast forward to now, oh how things have changed. I look at Safe Passage as sort of a “dark horse” in this race; he is flying under the radar of sorts in my opinion, but seems ready to just burst with a big run.

His run in the Juvenile was all heart and all grit; he lost by a total of just over a half-length while beating another pair of solid runners in Cypher and Ace. Then You Go On got him by a half-length in the Texan Stakes, another top contender in this race. The most impressive of his last three races was the New Orleans Derby; the next three under him in that race could match up with anything going in the SIM today. I sit here and compare all of these horses one by one and I’m struggling to find fault with Safe Passage, I can’t find another runner in the race more battle tested, he has beaten the best, and hung with the best.

I wanted to ask Bill a few questions about his colt, I know how I feel about him on the outside looking in, but I needed to know what he felt, he’s around him all the time. I asked Bill what he thought of Safe Passage, if he is worried about a bounce after that tough last prep race, and what his thoughts are going into the biggest race of the year. “Safe Passage just continues to amaze me. He was off of my radar as a yearling and even as a 2yo until his first race. I think that I still have a hard time believing he's this good. The New Orleans Derby was really eye opening for me. That was a tough field and I really figured that he would finish fourth. He won with his biggest speed figure and definitely showed me he deserved to go to the Derby.”

As far as if he thinks that last prep hurt, “I believe he can get the distance, but do worry that he will bounce in the Derby. Like I mentioned earlier he is coming off of his fastest speed figure and had to work to get the win. He has also raced more often than all but one of the current Derby entries. This will be his 5th consecutive race on two weeks rest. So while he is definitely battle-tested and has race experience, at some point he will need a break. I'm just hoping that it isn't now.”

And lastly, about my thoughts on him being the “dark horse”, “I would say that "dark horse" would be a very good description of him. SP has had a very solid race career to date. He has been extremely consistent and on the board in every start. He hasn't been as flashy or as impressive as the top of the division though. Just look at the big speed figures and open length wins put up by some of the Derby field. It is going to be a great race and I'm hopeful that he gives his best.”

That wraps up my trip around the Derby wheel; I’d say we covered just about everything. I’ll finish things up with a few random thoughts, when each SIM year ends and we gear up for another year, all of our hopes and dreams placed upon these little colts and fillies that we spend hours upon hours researching hoping to get to this very race. This is the big dance in the SIM, the best of the best Dirt Routers all find their way here, they may follow totally different paths, but the end game is in Louisville Week 6 every year. So, as you pour through stats in the Stud Book, or research how your mare fits with said sire, this is why you do it, to be able to be in the place of the owners as horses that we covered here. So take good care of those little foals that hold your hopes and dreams of taking home the roses one day, feed them carrots, tell them you love them, pet them even if they want to bite you, just hope it’s a love bite, because if you think about it, those teeth marks on your hands go away, but the thought of draping those roses over your prized 3YO lasts forever.

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